The problem

Most new crypto tokens lose money for the people who buy them

Many people look at crypto, see this, and decide the whole market is a trap. We looked at a year of real launches to see how bad it is, why it happens, and what a public filter can do about it.

79%

of 77 launches trade below their first-day price today

−61%

median change since the first day of trading

−6%

Bitcoin over the same periods (median)

4

days: median time for a new token to reach its highest price

Real data, not illustrative: 77 tokens that launched between 2025-10-23 and 2026-09-17 through curated launch programs, followed to 2026-10-20. “Lose money” here means: trading below the first-day price today. Prices from CoinGecko, calculations by NOTR. Think we are wrong? The data and the method are open: download the CSV at the bottom of this page, check it, and tell us what you find.

The backtest

What happened to 77 real launches

A backtest looks back at what already happened. We took launches from the last year, bought them in our heads on the first day of trading, and followed the price to today. Each chart answers one question, and each has a table underneath for anyone who prefers numbers.

How many launches are below their starting price?

Share of tokens priced under their first-day price, measured at four points in time.

Tokens that are too young for a horizon are left out of that bar, which is why the counts differ.
Show as a table
30 days after launch70% (54 / 77)
90 days after launch87% (62 / 71)
180 days after launch82% (51 / 62)
Today (2026-10-20)79% (61 / 77)

What does a typical launch look like?

Median price index with the first day set to 100, with the middle half of tokens shaded and Bitcoin for comparison.

Median new-token price index after launch, compared with Bitcoin0255075100day 030d90d180d
Median new tokenMiddle half of tokensBitcoin over the same days
The median new token is at 44 after 90 days. Bitcoin, in the same periods, is at 82. The market was weak in this period, and new tokens fell far more than Bitcoin did. Each point uses the tokens old enough to have reached that day.
Show as a table
DayMedian25th75thBTC
0100100100100
78155118–
30713511194
9044208182
18043147677

How big are the losses?

Where each of the 77 launches ended up, compared with its first-day price.

Number of launches by size of change since the first day20Downover 90%15Down70–90%10Down50–70%16Down0–50%10Up0–100%6Upover 100%
58% of launches are down by more than half, and 40% are down by more than 80%. 16 are up and 6 more than doubled. One token alone rose 20,540%, which lifts the plain average to +230%. Without that single token the average of the other 76 is −38%, and the typical (median) launch is −61%.
Show as a table
Down over 90%20
Down 70–90%15
Down 50–70%10
Down 0–50%16
Up 0–100%10
Up over 100%6

Does a launch program or size make it safe?

Launches grouped by program, by starting valuation and by supply trading on day one.

By program

GroupTokensBelow first-day priceMedian change
Binance Alpha Spotlight3776%−61%
Binance Wallet / Alpha sales1164%−42%
CoinList sales1090%−87%
MetaDAO raises978%−38%
Binance HODLer Airdrops4100%−49%
Other programs (under 3 each)6100%−84%

By valuation at launch

GroupTokensBelow first-day priceMedian change
Under $50M1688%−87%
$50M–150M2471%−54%
$150M–300M1782%−65%
Over $300M2080%−57%

By share of supply trading on day one

GroupTokensBelow first-day priceMedian change
Under 15%1894%−85%
15–25%3373%−59%
Over 25%1681%−44%

Small groups, so read the pattern and not the decimals. No single label, program or number on its own protected buyers. That is why a filter has to look at several things together.

Warning signs, tested

What the warning signs are worth

NOTR puts an attention mark on structures that have hurt buyers before. Here we test each threshold on the same launches. Where we have the data, you see the result. Where we do not, we say so.

Share below the first-day price, by warning sign

Same 77 launches, measured today.

Each bar: share below the first-day price · count · median change. Groups are small, so read the direction, not the decimals.
Show as a table
All launches79% · 61/77 · −61%
Thin float (under 15%)94% · 17/18 · −85%
Float 15% or more76% · 37/49 · −51%
Valuation under $50M88% · 14/16 · −87%
Valuation $1B or more (only 4)75% · 3/4 · −32%
  • Thin float

    Under 15% of supply trades on day one

    Backed by our data

    17 of 18 such launches (94%) are below their first-day price, median −85%. Launches with 15% or more: 76%, median −51%. The clearest signal in our data.

  • Very small launch

    Opening valuation under $50 million

    Backed by our data

    14 of 16 (88%) are below their first-day price, median −87%, the weakest valuation group. Larger launches: 77%, median −59%. We added this mark because the data showed it.

  • Rich price

    Opening valuation of $1 billion or more

    Backed by an outside study

    Memento Research: none of 28 such launches of 2025 was above its launch price, median about −81%. Our own sample has only 4: 3 are below, median −32%, which is better than our average. Too few to confirm or reject, so we rely on the larger study and say so.

  • Big unlock ahead

    More than 25% of supply unlocks in the next 12 months

    Not testable yet

    We tried. Public price data cannot measure unlocks: for 36 of the 58 launches with six months of data, CoinGecko's circulating supply did not move even 1% between day 30 and day 180, although most of these tokens have vesting schedules. The 18 where it did grow show no usable pattern. Unlock calendars sit in paid databases. From now on we record the calendar in every review, so this mark gets tested on our own record.

  • Big jump over the last round

    Opens at 5x or more the last private round

    Not testable yet

    Private round prices are not in any free dataset, so we cannot test this on past launches. We record the last round in every review and will publish the result once we have enough reviews.

  • Missed promise · Questions unanswered · Critical red flag

    Recorded in the ledger, with a source and a date

    A fact, not a forecast

    These marks do not predict a price. They state what happened: a dated promise was missed, a question went unanswered, a critical issue is open. They need a source, not a backtest.

Explore

What did launches like this one do?

Pick a launch program, a valuation and the share of supply that traded on day one. You see the real launches that match, and what happened to them. This is the reference NOTR shows on every review: what similar launches did before, as context and never as a forecast.

77

launches match

79%

below first-day price today

−61%

median change today

−56%

median change at 90 days

45 of 77 are down by more than half. Choose a program, a valuation or a share of supply to narrow it down.

TokenStartedValuationOn sale day one30 days90 daysTodayPeak
Ranger RNGRMetaDAO raises2026-01-10$3.7M66%−32%−62%−100%none
Aria ARIAIPOther programs (under 3 each)2025-11-07$165M30%−78%−91%−99.9%none
Datagram Network DGRAMBinance Alpha Spotlight2025-11-18$74M3%−83%−99%−99.8%+29%day 1
Belong LONGBinance Alpha Spotlight2025-11-06$83M9%−97%−98%−99.7%none
CharacterX CAIBinance Alpha Spotlight2026-01-12$30M11%−86%−93%−99.6%none
Piggycell PIGGYBinance Alpha Spotlight2025-10-28$155M7%−56%−99%−99%+45%day 2
ZKLSOL ZKFGMetaDAO raises2025-10-24$0.3M–+0%−10%−99%+91%day 239
DeepNode DNBinance Alpha Spotlight2026-01-09$112M22%−86%−91%−99%+37%day 4
Semantic Layer 42Binance Alpha Spotlight2025-10-27$213M15%−74%−83%−99%none
Dino Tycoon TYCOONBinance Alpha Spotlight2025-11-04$51M22%−42%−77%−98%none

Changes are measured from the first daily price on CoinGecko. Valuation and supply share are estimates. Sorted from the weakest result to the strongest.

Cases

The biggest drops and the biggest gains

The data has both ends. A few launches rose a lot, and most did not. Here are the ten weakest and the five strongest.

Ten biggest price drops

TokenValuationPeakToday
RangerMetaDAO raises · from 2026-01-10$3.7Mnone−100%
AriaOther programs (under 3 each) · from 2025-11-07$165Mnone−99.9%
Datagram NetworkBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2025-11-18$74M+29%−99.8%
BelongBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2025-11-06$83Mnone−99.7%
CharacterXBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2026-01-12$30Mnone−99.6%
PiggycellBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2025-10-28$155M+45%−99%
ZKLSOLMetaDAO raises · from 2025-10-24$0.3M+91%−99%
DeepNodeBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2026-01-09$112M+37%−99%
Semantic LayerBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2025-10-27$213Mnone−99%
Dino TycoonBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2025-11-04$51Mnone−98%

Five biggest price gains

TokenValuationPeakToday
BitwayBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2026-03-03$99M+24,650%+20,540%
PieverseBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2025-11-14$220M+739%+386%
ShareXBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2026-05-08$63M+314%+309%
DGrid AIBinance Alpha Spotlight · from 2026-08-24$378M+182%+148%
Rip CarsMetaDAO raises · from 2026-07-25$2.4M+171%+144%

These tables show what the price did since the first day of trading. They do not say whether a project is good, honest or finished, and they say nothing about what the team did or why. Every project here can reply and we will publish the reply as written.

Outside our sample

Other researchers see the same picture

Memento Research tracked 118 token launches of 2025. About 85% were below their opening valuation, and the median token was down 71%. Of the 28 launches that opened at a valuation of $1 billion or more, none was above its launch price, with a median drop of about 81%. Source: CryptoSlate.

The two studies use different samples and different dates, and they agree. In a small earlier check of ten launches from early 2025, all ten were established projects with public documents, and the two that opened at $1 billion or more were among the worst performers. The losses followed the price and the structure of the launch more than any sign of a scam.

Market context

What the market around these launches looked like

Our sample covers 23 October 2025 to 17 September 2026. These three public numbers describe the market in that period. They are context, not part of our data, and NOTR does not forecast prices.

  • 100+

    Crypto projects on RootData's 2026 closure list by August: shut down, bankrupt or gone inactive. More than half were DeFi protocols.

    The list counts bankruptcies, orderly wind-downs, pivots and long-inactive projects alike, and includes exchanges, wallets and NFT platforms, not only tokens. It is context. It does not say how new tokens did; the launch data above does that.

    CoinPaprika, citing RootData · 10 Aug 2026

  • 150

    Venture firms that took part in a crypto funding round in July 2026, the lowest count since November 2020. The peak was 1,177 in May 2022.

    This counts firms that invested, not the amount invested, and it says nothing about how tokens traded.

    CryptoRank · 28 Jul 2026

  • −52%

    Total crypto market value on 9 August 2026 was roughly 52% below its October 2025 peak.

    A market-wide fall pulls most tokens down together, so part of the losses in our sample comes from the market, not from each token. We do not separate the two.

    CoinPaprika · 10 Aug 2026

Why it is possible, and how we solve it

An altcoin can lose money even when nobody cheats

Losses on new tokens do not need a villain. A few ordinary mechanics are enough, and each one shows up in public data. Here is what happened this week, why it is possible, and what a NOTR review does about it.

This week’s signal

On 20 October 2026, the market maker Wintermute said capital flows over the past week were more concentrated in Bitcoin and Ether than in altcoins, and that Bitcoin has to rise first before a broad altcoin rally can resume. Bloomingbit reports the altcoin market down 5.69% over that week. A week earlier, Wintermute advised caution on rallies in lower-quality altcoins.

This is context from a market maker’s weekly notes, as reported by the outlets below. Weekly moves change, and NOTR does not forecast prices. Bloomingbit · 20 Oct 2026 · CryptoTimes · 13 Oct 2026

Four ordinary reasons, no villain needed

A new token can lose money without anyone cheating. These are our readings of how it happens. Each one sits next to a number you can check.

  1. 01

    Money stays with the biggest assets first

    When the market is cautious, money tends to stay in Bitcoin and Ether. A broad rally in other tokens waits until Bitcoin moves up first. That is Wintermute's reading of its own flows, and it is a description of the week, not a forecast.

    The numberOur 77 launches: the median token is −61% since the first day, Bitcoin over the same periods −6%.

  2. 02

    The price is set for a perfect outcome

    A token opens at a valuation that already assumes the project succeeds. If the project only does fine, the price has little room to go anywhere but down.

    The numberNo valuation band in our data did well: the share below the first-day price runs from 71% to 88%.

  3. 03

    Few tokens trade now, many arrive later

    At launch only a small part of the supply is on the market. The rest unlocks on a schedule, often to people who paid less than the public did. Each unlock is new supply that buyers have to absorb.

    The numberLaunches with under 15% of supply trading on day one (18 tokens): 17 ended below the first-day price, median −85%.

  4. 04

    A project can simply end

    Funding does not guarantee a product that people keep using. In June 2026 Sophon announced it would shut down its own chain and move to Base. The team said the chain was not creating value users could not get elsewhere. The Defiant reports about $60 million raised from node sales and a token down about 90% from launch. This is a business ending, and we state only what was announced and reported.

    The numberRootData’s 2026 closure list passed 100 projects by August (see Market context above).

    The Defiant · 26 Jun 2026 · Bankless · Jun 2026

Recent closures

Two more chains ended in October

Both had backing and users, and both announced the end themselves. We state what the teams announced and what outlets reported, and nothing more.

  • Blast2 Oct 2026

    The team announced a wind-down. It said operating costs exceed revenue and that it sees no credible path to making the chain economically sustainable. The Block reports it launched after a $20 million round led by Paradigm and Standard Crypto, and that DeFi value locked is about $32 million, down from more than $2 billion before mainnet. Withdrawals stay open through the normal interface until 26 October. After that, funds can only be withdrawn by calling the bridge contracts directly.

    The Block · 3 Oct 2026 · Bankless · Oct 2026

  • Abstract6 Oct 2026

    Igloo, the parent company of Pudgy Penguins, announced that Abstract will close and told users to move their funds by 15 December. Igloo said it had lost tens of millions of dollars over two years keeping the chain running, and named lower demand and thin liquidity as the reasons.

    Protos · Oct 2026

Across the market, a researcher’s list (Stacy Muur) counts 82 projects reported shut down in 2026, in DeFi, infrastructure and Web3 gaming. It is a snapshot, not a census. DeFiLlama separately counted 100 wind-down announcements by August and says those projects raised about $1 billion together. The two datasets differ and should not be added together. CCN · 21 Oct 2026

What a NOTR review does about each one

  • Money stays with the biggest assets

    NOTR cannot change the market and does not try to call it. It helps you choose by evidence instead of by noise: fewer projects, each read against the same three questions. A good review is not a promise that the price will rise.

  • The price is set for a perfect outcome

    The price and structure table shows the opening valuation, the jump over the last round and the revenue behind it, with an attention mark when the gap is wide.

  • Few tokens trade now, many arrive later

    We publish the share in circulation at launch and the unlock calendar for the first 12 months, in dates and amounts, next to the price each group paid.

  • A project can simply end

    Every dated promise goes into a public ledger and is checked on the day it falls due. The project gets 7 days to answer our questions, and the answer is published unedited. A later change of direction stays on the record.

  • The old traps

    Entry checks run on public chain data before any review: verified contract source, no hidden mint or admin keys, the token can be sold, official links match. A project that fails a required check stays off the main list, and the reasons are shown.

The honest limit: a filter lowers the chance of buying blind. It does not remove market risk. In a weak market, even a project that keeps every promise can fall with the rest. This is not investment advice.

Trust

What this does to trust in the market

The money lost is only part of it. Here is what independent sources report about scams, dead tokens and retail money leaving crypto. Each card links to its source.

  • $14 bn+

    Received by crypto scam addresses in 2025, at least, confirmed on-chain. Chainalysis estimates about $17 billion once more addresses are identified. The average scam payment rose from $782 to $2,764.

    Scams are a different problem from ordinary launches that lose value. But newcomers meet both on the same market, and they do not know which is which.

    Chainalysis, 2026 Crypto Crime Report · 13 Jan 2026

  • 3.7 m of 7 m

    Tokens listed since 2021 that had stopped trading by spring 2025, according to CoinGecko. About 1.8 million of them died in the first quarter of 2025 alone.

    Most of these are tiny tokens. They show how much of what gets launched disappears, not how bigger launches did.

    CoinGecko, reported by Cointelegraph · 30 Apr 2025

  • 118 launches

    Tracked by Memento Research for 2025. Most were below their opening valuation, and launches that opened at a low valuation did much better than the hyped billion-dollar debuts.

    Memento Research, reported by The Defiant · 23 Dec 2025

  • $19 bn+

    In positions wiped out during the October 2025 crash, with more than 1.6 million traders liquidated. Wintermute, a market maker, then described a near-complete move of retail money into stocks that was still going on.

    This is about the whole market. We cannot say how much of the exit comes from losses on new launches.

    Bloomberg, summarised by PYMNTS · 1 Mar 2026

  • 12%

    Of 2,000 American adults said in May 2026 that they used to own crypto and no longer do. 22% own some now and 66% never have.

    The survey does not report why people left, so we do not claim a reason.

    Motley Fool Money, 2026 Cryptocurrency Investor Trends Survey · 8 May 2026

Our reading, not a statistic

Put together, this is the path we see. A newcomer buys a well-known launch and watches it lose most of its value. Nobody told them the price was set for perfection, how little supply traded, or what unlocks next. They decide the market is a casino and leave, and some of those who leave would have backed good projects.

For projects that do keep their word, it gets harder. They look like everyone else, so they raise money on the same terms as those who do not. The sources above show the size of the losses and the exit of retail money, but they do not prove that launch losses alone cause the exit. We say what we can show and mark the rest as our reading.

Why it keeps happening

Breaking a promise costs a project almost nothing

This is our explanation, not a statistic. A token launch is a short moment when attention is at its highest and information is at its lowest. Buyers see a price, a roadmap and a crowd. They do not see how much unlocks next month, what the insiders paid, or whether the last roadmap was kept.

The projects face no cost for a missed date, and the losses are spread across thousands of buyers, so nobody keeps score. The next launch starts with a clean slate and a new story.

What is missing is a public record: who promised what, on what date, and what happened. NOTR is that record.

What we are fighting

Five things that cost buyers money

None of these needs an accusation. Each one can be checked on public facts and written down with a source and a date. We mark which ones our own numbers support and which are our method.

  1. 01

    Priced for perfection

    The token opens at a valuation far above what the product earns, what the last private round paid, or what comparable projects are worth.

    How we checkEvery review records the opening valuation, the jump over the last round and the revenue behind it, then compares them with the launches that came before.

    Backed by dataNo valuation band in our 77 launches did well: the share below the first-day price runs from 71% to 88%. Memento Research found none of the 28 launches that opened at $1 billion or more was above its launch price.

  2. 02

    Thin float, and insiders on different terms

    Only a small share of the supply trades on day one, while large insider and investor allocations wait to unlock later, often on cheaper terms than public buyers get.

    How we checkWe publish the share in circulation at launch, the unlock calendar for the first 12 months in dates and amounts, and the lock-ups of public buyers, investors and team side by side with the price each group paid.

    Backed by dataLaunches with under 15% of supply trading on day one (18 tokens): 17 ended below their first-day price, median -85%. The rest: 76% below, median -51%.

  3. 03

    Claims and labels that do not add up

    A project states one number on its website and a different one in its white paper or in third-party data. Or it leans on words like “audited”, “regulated” or “multi-sig protected” that say nothing about what was checked, by whom, and for what.

    How we checkWe quote both statements next to each other with sources and dates, read the document behind the label and report its exact scope and open findings, and ask the project which version is right. Its reply is published unedited. Legal and regulatory points appear only as quotes and questions.

    Our methodOur way of checking. Price data cannot measure it, so the backtest does not test it. Our LEVER review shows it in practice: 35B stated, 55.79B on Etherscan.

  4. 04

    Promises with no date and no owner

    Roadmaps list features and dates, and nothing happens when the date passes.

    How we checkEach dated promise goes into a public ledger and is checked on the day it falls due: met, not met, can't verify, or pending.

    Our methodOur way of checking. The ledger builds its own record over time. In our LEVER review, 1 of the 4 promises that could be checked was kept.

  5. 05

    The old traps

    Tokens that cannot be sold, hidden mint keys, look-alike websites. Less common among well-known launches, but when they happen the loss is total.

    How we checkAutomatic entry checks on public data. A project that fails a required check stays off the main list and the reasons are shown.

    Our methodOur way of checking. These cases are rare among the launches we followed, so the data does not measure them.

How we solve it

Three questions, one verdict, and a public record

The market lacks a public, comparable record that a buyer can read in five minutes. NOTR builds it. Every project gets the same three questions, the same fields and the same words for results.

QUESTION 1

Is it safe?

Can anyone take the money? Is it really the team it claims to be? Are the numbers open? We check public data, automatically where we can.

You see: passed, partial or did not pass, with each reason. A project that fails a hard check stays off the main list.

QUESTION 2

Is the price and structure fair?

What is the opening valuation, how much supply trades on day one, what unlocks in the first year, and on what terms did insiders buy compared with the public?

You see: one table with the same fields for every project, attention marks, and what similar launches did before.

QUESTION 3

Does it keep its word?

Every dated promise goes into a public ledger and is checked on the day it falls due. Where two statements differ, we ask the project and publish its answer as written.

You see: met, not met, can't verify or pending, plus the questions and the replies.

Then one verdict

Ready, Not yet or Not ready, with the three answers next to it and what would change it. At launch the NOTR team writes it on public facts and says so. As passport-verified analysts build a record, their weighted vote takes over.

Beside every review we also show what launches with similar valuation and supply did before, taken from the backtest. It is context for the reader and never a price forecast. The more launches we follow, the better that reference gets.

If you are new to crypto

You want quality projects only. Here is how to read a review

  1. 1.Look at the verdict first. It says ready, not yet, or not ready, or that the project did not pass entry.
  2. 2.Open the entry checks. If a required one failed, the reason is in plain words.
  3. 3.Read the price and structure table and the attention marks. Compare the opening valuation with the last round, and see how much unlocks in the first year.
  4. 4.Check the promise ledger. A project that keeps dated promises is different from one that does not.
  5. 5.Read the questions last. Unanswered questions are information too.

A review does not tell you whether a price will go up. It tells you what is known, what is not, and what the project has promised. The decision stays with you.

Method and limits

How we measured, and what this does not show

  • Which launches. Tokens whose trading history on CoinGecko starts between 23 October 2025 and 17 September 2026 and that came through a launch program or an investor portfolio list. First batch (37 tokens): Binance HODLer Airdrops, Launchpool and Megadrop, Binance Wallet and BuildKey sales, and the sale platforms CoinList, MetaDAO and Buidlpad. Second batch (40 tokens): Binance Alpha Spotlight and tokens from venture-fund portfolio lists. That second list had 93 candidates; we processed 41 of them in a random order set in advance (40 had usable data), and stopped there because of data limits. Five tokens at the start were taken in order of market size before the random order began. Programs were chosen first. Individual tokens were not picked for their result, and none was removed because of it. This is a large sample, not every launch of the year.
  • Price at launch. The first daily price in CoinGecko history. This is what a person buying on the first day of trading pays. It is not the price paid in a pre-launch sale, which was usually lower, and results for sale participants differ.
  • Valuation and share of supply. Estimated from the supply that CoinGecko reports today. Supply in circulation over time is market cap divided by price on each day. For tokens that add supply over time, these are approximations.
  • Too young or too old. Tokens with fewer than 30 days of history are left out. Tokens that launched before 22 October 2025 are left out because the free data starts there. A handful of tokens have gaps in their data.
  • Weak market. Bitcoin fell over much of this period. Losses on new tokens were far larger than Bitcoin's, but a stronger market would have given better numbers.
  • Thresholds were set on the same data. The attention-mark thresholds, such as what counts as a thin float, were set and checked on these same launches, with no separate group left to test them on. When many cut-offs are tried on one sample, the best-looking one tends to flatter itself (the multiple-testing problem). Read each threshold as a starting point, not a proven rule. We will test them again on launches that happen after this sample ended.
  • What it does not show. It does not say which individual project will do well, and it is not a prediction. It does not say that every launch is a bad one. A few rose a lot, and they are in the data.
  • Not investment advice. NOTR does not give investment advice. This page describes what happened to a group of launches.
Download the data (CSV)

One row per token: start date, first-day price, estimated valuation and supply share, and the change at 7, 30, 90, 180 days and today.

Download the supply check (CSV)

Circulating supply at day 0, 7, 30, 90 and 180 for each token, as CoinGecko reports it. This is the data behind the unlock test above.