Layer 2 scalingIllustrative dataVerified · bond posted

Orbital Rollup

General-purpose rollup with a shared sequencer set and a public exit path.

Last updated Oct 1, 2026

NOTR verdict

Ready

Saying ready: Voters 70% · Open poll 48%

Illustrative data. Orbital Rollup is a fictional example project for demonstration purposes only.

Not investment advice. NOTR publishes public data, analysis, and risk signals — never a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

Market cap: $410M
30d volume: $88M
Holders: 113K
Launch date: Apr 22, 2025
Chain: Orbital Mainnet

NOTR verdict · Should this project launch?

Ready to launch

Majority

Verified voters who staked their reputation say this project is ready.

At launch, the verdict is written by the NOTR team on public facts. As verified analysts join and earn rating for right calls, their weighted votes take over.

Verified voters4 of 5 say ready

Ready 70%Not yet 30%No 0%

Open poll1,830 votes

48% say ready. Anyone can join this poll, but it is not verified and never changes the verdict.

Cast your vote

Evidence checklist: 2 of 8 checks met (what analysts start from, not the verdict)

Is it safe?

Passed, with 1 warning

No hard check failed. Soft checks are shown as warnings.

Entry checks →

Is the price and structure fair?

2 attention marks

Rich price · A promise was missed

Price & structure →

Does it keep its word?

2 of 4 promises met

1 missed. Reply to our questions: answered.

Promise ledger →

Step 0 · Entry

Entry checks

Automatic checks of what can be verified from public data, run before anyone votes.

Contract source verifiedDecides entry
Source verified.
Pass
No hidden mint or admin keysDecides entry
Upgrade keys are a published security council.
Pass
Token can be soldDecides entry
Transfers are unrestricted.
Pass
Official links match the contractDecides entry
Links match the deployed contracts.
Pass
Audit publishedShown as a warning
Sequencer audit is in progress.
Warning
Team can be identifiedShown as a warning
Founders and core team are public.
Pass
Supply and vesting are publicShown as a warning
Supply and unlocks published in full.
Pass

These checks run automatically on public data, before any review is written. A failed hard check keeps a project off the main list. Warnings stay visible, and the verdict weighs how much they matter.

Voters

Who voted, and what they staked

Every voter is a verified person with a public rating. Each puts reputation on the line with their call, and their reasons are public.

Ada LindgrenAnalyst · 2,140
Smart-contract security · 17 of 20 past calls right
200 REP stakedNot yet
The sequencer audit is still in progress, so its findings are unknown.
Sara QuinteroAnalyst · 2,310
Team background checks · 19 of 26 past calls right
150 REP stakedReady
Founders and the core team are public and have verifiable track records.
Rina TakahashiAnalyst · 1,650
Onchain forensics · 14 of 19 past calls right
130 REP stakedReady
The exit path back to the main network has already been used in practice.
Kofi MensahExpert · 2,880
Tokenomics and unlocks · 22 of 27 past calls right
100 REP stakedReady
Supply and the unlock schedule are clear and published in full.
Julian WeissMember · 1,420
Legal and compliance · 11 of 13 past calls right
90 REP stakedReady
The foundation structure is documented and the filings are available.

How votes are counted

Every voter is a passport-verified person with a public nickname and a rating (REP).
To vote, a person stakes part of their REP on the call. Nobody votes for free.
When the facts come in (promises kept or broken), people who were right gain REP, and those who were wrong lose what they staked.
The more REP staked, the more the vote weighs. All Newcomers together count for at most 25% of the total, so a crowd of new accounts cannot decide a verdict.

Concept with invented analysts and numbers. The exact rules need design and legal review.

Your vote

Should this project launch?

Verified people vote. Every vote needs a written reason and a staked rating, and stays sealed until the window closes.

Preview, votes are not saved

Is Orbital Rollup ready to launch?

Only passport-verified people can vote, one account per person. You start as a Newcomer with 100 rating. Newcomers together carry at most 25% of the total weight, and your weight grows as your calls turn out right.

1. Your vote

2. Why? Required.

Write at least 60 more characters.0 / 60

3. Reputation you stake: 50 REP

Your rating is 100, so you can stake at most 50 REP, half of it. If the facts prove you right you gain 60% of the stake. If you are wrong the stake is burned. A higher rating means a bigger possible stake and a heavier vote.

4. I do not hold this project's token and have no link to its team.Hidden conflicts found later mean a ban and loss of rating.

No reason, no vote. At least 60 characters, so a bare “yes” or “no” is not accepted. Votes stay sealed until the window closes.

Open poll

What readers wrote

Anyone can comment and join the open poll. It is not verified and does not change the verdict.

gas_goblinCommunity · Sep 30, 2026
Fees are low and withdrawals worked for me. Fine so far.
rollup_readerCommunity · Sep 18, 2026
Still waiting on decentralized sequencing. It was promised for summer.
farmer_foxCommunity · Sep 2, 2026
Half the wallets I see are farming for the next airdrop.

Attention marks

Rich price outside study
Opened at a valuation of $2.4 billion. Memento Research found none of the 28 launches of 2025 that opened at $1 billion or more was above its launch price. Our own sample has too few such launches to confirm it.
A promise was missed recorded fact
1 of 4 dated promises in the ledger are marked missed.

Marks point at structures that have hurt buyers before. They do not remove a project from the list, they are not a forecast, and they never replace the verdict. How each mark was tested

The price

Opening valuation (FDV)

$2.4B

Last private round

$600M

Series B, Jan 2025

Jump over the last round

Valuation / yearly revenue

133x

Revenue $18M a year

The supply

Trading at launch

18%

Share of total supply

Unlocks in next 12 months

20%

Share of total supply

The full unlock calendar, in dates and amounts, is on the Onchain & whales tab.

Who paid what

Group	Share of supply	Paid vs opening price	Lock-up
Public buyers	18%	1x	None
Investors	26%	0.25x	12-month cliff, then monthly over 24 months
Team and advisers	17%	–	12-month cliff, 36-month vesting

A group that paid 0.2x of the opening price is sitting on a five-fold gain from day one. That is not wrong in itself, but buyers should know it and know when that group can sell.

What similar launches did

Launches with an opening valuation over $300M

20 launches · 80% below first-day price · median −57%

Launches with 15–25% of supply trading on day one

32 launches · 72% below first-day price · median −54%

From our backtest of real launches, as context for Orbital Rollup and never as a forecast. Explore the data

Who is behind it

About Orbital Rollup

What it does, who runs it, and where to reach them.

Orbital is a faster, cheaper network that settles on a larger one. Several operators share the job of ordering transactions and users can always exit to the main network on their own. Founders and the core team are public.

Ticker: ORB
Founded: April 2024
Legal entity: Orbital Labs AG
Jurisdiction: Switzerland (AG)

Team

Anselm RiegerIdentity verified
Co-founder, CEO
Researcher in rollup design; co-author of two scaling papers.
Leila HaddadIdentity verified
Co-founder, CTO
Former protocol engineer on a major L1 client.
Theo NakagawaIdentity verified
Head of Protocol
Built a prover system used in production.
Maya SorensenIdentity verified
Head of Ecosystem
Led developer relations at an L2.

Placeholder contacts for a fictional project. Real pages will link to the project's own, checked accounts.

Market

Market cap

Weekly, illustrative market cap over the trailing 6 months.

Market cap

$410M+4.9%

Promise ledger

What the project promised, and what happened

Dated, measurable promises published by the project. When the date passes, the facts decide who was right, and ratings change.

Mainnet launch
DoneApr 22, 2025
Shipped on the announced date.
Public exit path for users
DoneSep 30, 2025
Forced-exit mechanism live and tested with a public drill.
Decentralized sequencer set
MissedJun 30, 2026
Promised for Q2 2026; still run by the core team with no new date.
Publish sequencer audit
In progressDec 15, 2026
Auditor engaged; scope document published.

Voting history

How past polls ended

Orbital Rollup has 3 closed polls on whether a specific, measurable milestone was met. 2 of 3 ended as “Met”. Each result is shown next to what the public record says, so you can see when the crowd and the facts agree.

Share of votes saying “Met”, by poll (oldest to newest)

Is the sequencer set decentralized as promised for Q2?
Not met
Met 7%Unsure 14%Not met 80%880 votes · closed Jul 3, 2026
Public record: The sequencer is still operated by the core team.
Did the forced-exit drill succeed?
Met
Met 83%Unsure 10%Not met 7%625 votes · closed Oct 2, 2025
Public record: The public drill completed successfully.
Were the token terms published before launch?
Met
Met 64%Unsure 19%Not met 17%470 votes · closed Apr 20, 2025
Public record: Published four days before launch.

Illustrative preview. Voting is not open yet. Votes are weighted by each voter's track record, and they never change the evidence checklist. It changes only when public data changes.

Right of reply · Responded

Orbital Rollup responded on Sep 24, 2026 and disputes the framing of the sequencer milestone; its statement is linked in the sources.

NOTR analysis

Our written breakdown

Green and red flags identified from the public record, with what would change the picture.

Green flags

Founders and protocol team are fully verified with public track records.
Source: Project website
A working forced-exit path was demonstrated in a public drill.
Source: GitHub repository
Terms for the token were published and reviewed by counsel.
Source: Project website

Red flags

The sequencer is run by the core team, and the decentralization milestone was missed.
Source: Project website
The sequencer upgrade path has not been audited.
Source: Audit report
60% of transactions come from three applications; airdrop farming inflates some weeks.
Source: Onchain explorer

What would improve the checks

Publish the sequencer audit and a firm date for decentralization.
Itemize quarterly treasury reports.
Spread unlocks beyond the single February 2027 event.

Checklist

Evidence checklist

The 8 things NOTR checks in public data. Each one is marked met, partly met or not met. There is no total number, because a total would hide which check failed. Analysts start from this list. It supports their vote, it does not replace it.

Onchain activity

Transaction volume, active wallets, and contract usage trends over the last 90 days.

Met

Transactions up 35% since launch, but 60% come from three applications.

Source: Onchain explorer

Team verified

Whether core contributors have confirmed, cross-checked identities and a track record.

Met

All founders and the core protocol team are verified with public track records.

Source: Project website

Code audit

Coverage and severity of findings from independent smart-contract audits.

Partly met

Bridge contracts audited; the sequencer upgrade path has not been reviewed.

Source: Audit report

Tokenomics and unlocks

How concentrated supply is and whether the vesting schedule is public and being followed.

Partly met

Ecosystem and investor allocations unlock together in 4 months.

Source: Onchain explorer

Kept past promises

Share of publicly committed roadmap milestones the team actually delivered on time.

Partly met

Decentralized sequencer promised for Q2 2026; still run by the core team.

Source: Project website

Treasury transparency

Whether treasury wallets are disclosed and spending is reported on a regular cadence.

Partly met

Treasury address is public; quarterly reports are summaries without line items.

Source: Onchain explorer

Legal structure

Existence of a named legal entity, jurisdiction, and terms covering the token or product.

Partly met

Foundation registered; token terms published and reviewed by counsel.

Source: Project website

Manipulation signals

Wash-trading, coordinated social activity, and other red flags detected in market data.

Partly met

Airdrop-farming wallets inflate activity in some weeks.

Source: Onchain explorer

Met: clear public evidence. Partly met: some evidence, with gaps. Not met: the evidence is missing or points the other way.

Sources

Project website
Reviewed the technical docs, roadmap, and sequencer announcement.
GitHub repository
58 contributors; rollup client and bridge are open source.
Onchain explorer
Bridge flows, sequencer fees, and treasury checked over 90 days.
Audit report
Bridge audit dated February 2026; no sequencer audit published.

Market cap: $410M
Circulating supply: 119M ORB
30d volume: $88M
30d volume / market cap: 21%
Liquidity depth: $14.2M
Tightest spread: 12 bps

Market cap

Weekly, illustrative market cap over the trailing 6 months.

Market cap

$410M+4.9%

Where it trades

Harborex carries 32.3% of 24h volume. Wide spreads and thin depth on a venue mean the volume there is easier to move.

Venue	Type	Pair	24h volume	Share	Spread	Depth ±2%
Harborex	CEX	ORB/USDT	$948K	32.3%	12 bps	$2.3M
Lanternswap	DEX	ORB/USDT	$604K	20.6%	14 bps	$1.5M
Cobalt Exchange	CEX	ORB/USDT	$581K	19.8%	20 bps	$1.4M
Tidepool	DEX	ORB/USDT	$431K	14.7%	20 bps	$1M
Northgate	CEX	ORB/USDT	$369K	12.6%	19 bps	$893K

Venues are fictional examples. Real project pages will list actual exchanges with data from public market APIs.

Supply and unlocks

Cumulative share of total supply unlocked over time.

18%

Apr 25

Airdrop and public sale

25%

Oct 25

Team tranche 1

32%

Apr 26

Team tranche 2

52%

Feb 27

Ecosystem and investors

59%

Oct 27

Team tranche 3

Already unlockedScheduled

Weekly active wallets

62K+53.7%

Weekly onchain volume

$35M+68.2%

Top 10 holders

Addresses are fictional. On real pages every labeled wallet links to a chain explorer.

#	Wallet	Label	% of supply	30d change
1	D5nS…gj7V	Foundation treasury	10.4%	+5.3%
2	cX9P…APA6	Team vesting contract	8.3%	+4.5%
3	6Yyv…LjDi	Exchange cold wallet	6.4%	+4.6%
4	EbwY…noq9	Investor wallet A	5.2%	-10.1%
5	MUr4…8yvt	Market-maker wallet	4.3%	+3.2%
6	AepA…nk2B	Investor wallet B	3.5%	-8.3%
7	iRVg…JmJN	Ecosystem fund	2.9%	-5.8%
8	2SKs…zfXk	Unlabeled wallet	2.4%	-2.3%
9	VqPH…FLWi	Unlabeled wallet	2.0%	+3.1%
10	Yimz…3nW9	Unlabeled wallet	1.7%	+7.3%

Holder concentration

47%held by the top 10 wallets — moderate concentration

Top 10 holdersEveryone else

Liquidity depth

$14.2M

Treasury runway

31 months

Recent large transactions

Wallet	Type	Value	Date	Note
6dMq…3xJa	Transfer	$4.1M	Oct 1	Foundation wallet → exchange deposit
3pVt…8kRn	Sell	$1.8M	Sep 26	Early-investor wallet
7zCs…5bGh	Buy	$1.2M	Sep 21	Market-maker wallet
1wFu…4eYd	Buy	$897K	Sep 14	Unlabeled wallet
8hKx…2nPv	Sell	$1.4M	Sep 6	Airdrop recipient wallet

Illustrative data. Orbital Rollup is a fictional example project for demonstration purposes only.

Not investment advice. NOTR publishes public data, analysis, and risk signals — never a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

How it works

Is it safe?

Is the price and structure fair?

Does it keep its word?

Then one verdict

Orbital Rollup

Ready to launch

Entry checks

Who voted, and what they staked

How votes are counted

Should this project launch?

Is Orbital Rollup ready to launch?

What readers wrote

About Orbital Rollup

Team

Links and contacts

Market cap

What the project promised, and what happened

Mainnet launch

Public exit path for users

Decentralized sequencer set

Publish sequencer audit

How past polls ended

Our written breakdown

Green flags

Red flags

What would improve the checks

Evidence checklist

Sources

Market cap

Where it trades

Supply and unlocks

Top 10 holders

Holder concentration

Recent large transactions

AI analyst